Presently, 14.94 million of these gadgets are anticipated to be supplied in 2022, up 54.2 percent from the 9.69 million shipped in 2021. (IDC, 2021).
The majority of them are virtual reality (VR) gadgets, which account for 91 percent of all VR and augmented reality (AR) devices anticipated to be shipped this year.
Thus, the question arises: What are some of the primary factors contributing to this tremendous growth?
Sectors that have been widespread adoption of and increased demand for VR include gaming and entertaimmemt, education sector, business sulotions and etc.
Who will be the next major key player in the VR market?
As we knew some big names have entered the playing field such as Apple, Valve and Huawei.
What technology could we anticipate from these giants in the future?
Prediction has shown that VR will lead to a growing number of employment opportunities, but will this become a trend, ushering us into a technological era? How does the traditional human labor alter in a metaverse world?
Looking in my crystal ball …
… I see… the fog is rising … looking back…
… COVID was the catalyst, urging for digital collaboration of all kind…
…digitization is the measure for significant cost reducing, digital twins everywhere…
… I see a glare… a consumer break through on AR/VR… I see… is it Pimax? … ah… no, the fog, the fog comes back, everything white now… my vision just went away…
sorry, no more to tell .
… leaving now please pay my bill…
The main underlying factor is that VR is this technology that’s going to have a profound impact on the world and especially entertainment in much the same manner as the introduction of Television.
So really the question is why hasn’t it grown faster?
A big part of that is due to its outrageous technical complexity. Achieving VR immersion where the person feels actually present in the virtual environment has a different threshold of disbelief for each person. Current VR products aren’t able to meet that disbelief threshold for everyone. Maybe because the clarity isn’t good enough, or the field of view is too restricted, or the sound is tinny and unrealistic, or maybe the headset fits uncomfortably, and they never feel immersed because it keeps hurting their nose. That last isn’t really a joke because even little random issues like that can break immersion and are not necessarily easy to work around or solve for that person.
To those who aren’t able to achieve VR immersion with current products, VR is just a gimmick. And there’s a lot of people who either haven’t tried VR or who have only vaguely tried it who hold this opinion. But to those who have been able to achieve VR immersion, it’s magical.
I don’t think it’s really the cost that holds back VR, but rather whether the technology is able to reach that threshold of VR immersion for the individual. Lower cost induces them to be more willing to try it in the first place, which is why the Quest 2 has been successful. But once someone has experienced VR immersion that works for them, I think they become much more willing to invest in it, and cost becomes much less of a barrier. Thus why you see a lot of people start with a Quest 2, but then look to upgrade to something better once they’re into it (most often the aging Valve Index).
The other big thing that has held back VR is Facebook. Facebook has engaged in heavily anticompetitive practices from the moment they purchased Oculus. It fractured VR into exclusives so early that it nearly killed the golden goose before it could even mature. And it turned VR hardware development immediately into a race to the bottom, which largely gutted innovation for any companies except Facebook. Particularly for mid-range and high end VR gear. I think VR is 2+ years behind in technology and adoption versus where it would have been if Facebook had never happened to VR.
I think we’re going to see a lot of traditional big companies in gaming and entertainment become has beens because those companies clearly do not recognize the storm that is coming and are not going to take VR seriously until it’s too late to catch up. Other companies are demonstrating that they are old dogs which are stuck in their ways and can’t figure out how to VR even when they try. This is a time when we’re going to see new companies rise to prominence that weren’t big players before.
I have little faith in Apple’s entry making the big splash that people seem to be expecting. I think they’re building a headset for nobody, and they don’t understand the market. This is Apple’s first attempt at releasing a truly new product post Steve Jobs, and I think they’re on their way to botching it.
Valve is the only big player besides Meta who I think is on target for what they’re trying to do. But I suspect they’re also being delayed heavily by Meta buying up their suppliers and otherwise blocking their efforts.
The company I see as the most likely to rise to prominence as a new big player is actually Pimax. This small company has been swimming with these giant sharks and somehow has continued to survive and grow and offer VR headsets with aggressive capabilities unmatched by anything else on the consumer market. Their products have been held back by a lack of polish and bugs which make them too difficult and finnicky to use for many customers. But I think Pimax may be on course to change that with its Reality series. They’ve got big plans, and if they can stick the landing, they might just grow into a big fish themselves.
I think the next big jump in VR technology will be varifocal lenses. This technology will push a lot more of the population beyond their disbelief threshold into VR immersion. And consequently a flood of new users will get into it.
Remote working is already on the rise. It was strongly boosted by covid lockdowns. But even after the lockdowns, I think a lot of companies have realized the remote working really works and actually increases their productivity.
VR would be a huge enabler for better remote working. Just think of the meetings in Star Wars where some people present are holograms while others are physically there. Right now, a downside of remote working is that you don’t get the same level of human interaction when you’re working with colleagues. But with VR, you could.
There’s hype and hope, being old enough to have seen computers, the internet, and cell phones all come into existence, theres a few stages: One where the promise is recognized and the ideas are all over the place crazy and wildly fantastic. Then there’s a few good ones and someone makes some clunky but workable examples, then finally a giant emerges and the progress becomes cheaper, more ubiquitous and more user-friendly. I think we’re in that great hype and hope phase, maybe bridging into the clunky examples phase. All I know is I wish I was 20 years younger to see it truly become part of humanity. We will look back at the Pimax as museum peices!
As long a they don’t “dead stick” the landing
Pimax has some advantages being VR is backed by the Chinese government and that China’s middle class is larger than the entire population of North America. If they can get the QA and support up to standard they will be a force to be reckoned with in the international market.
VR is not growing. Actually VR’s heat is cooling down. People are less and less enthusiastic about it over the years.
Remote working generate lots of heat for Zoom, but almost none for VR, because using VR for work is still in an early alpha phrase. You cannot find an app which allows you to do work in VR. Right now, VR is still aiming for entertainment and leisure purposes.
VR gaming is fun. It has the wow factor the first time you try it, but then over the days you will find VR gaming is sweaty, dizzy and uncomfortable over the long time. VR is not really fit for long time playing.
So what is VR really good for ? Leisure, of course. I think you all know what I meant.
Can you substantiate that claim with any statistics or anything? How do you explain the statistics quoted in the OP which show over 50% growth year to year then?
I do agree that we are in a lull at the moment in 2022, but that’s due to a lack of new products and major games which have been released so far this year, not any decrease in consumer demand for them.
That is true. VR for remote work isn’t a thing just yet. But this is clearly the direction that Meta is going with Project Cambria and some features they’ve been prototyping even within the Quest 2. So this is something which I expect to produce additional growth in VR in the near future.
For some people this is true. For others, it’s getting them out of their gaming chairs and actually getting them some exercise. Personally, I think this is a good thing. And a lot of people actually appreciate it. I expect more and more people to pick up VR as a means of becoming more fit.
As for the VR headset causing dizziness or being uncomfortable to wear, that’s something that really depends on the person and how the gear fits them. A lot of my friends are in VR for several hours at a stretch without issue. Whereas some others can’t be in VR for very long due to these kinds of problems. These are definitely issues which hinder VR growth, but they aren’t a major problem for everyone. And it’s something which has gotten better over time as better straps are developed and VR headsets get smaller and lighter.
Well, the Pimax headsets aren’t getting smaller or lighter… but others are.
I am a westerner so obviously have no way of knowing what benefits Pimax might gain from VR being supported in China’s budget. Are you suggesting Pimax’s R&D effort doesn’t qualify them because of size for support or are you saying that VR is not a national budget line item in China?
It would be interesting to know how many of all these sold HMDs are in active use, and how many are stuffed into a cupboard and forgotten.
I suppose with everything being connected these days, and running through software that tends to report back to its masters, collecting that data should not be impossible.
About continuing sales, I think it’s safe to assume a significant part of new sales are to incumbent fans replacing older headsets; Question there, again, is how many of the retired ones get passed down to new active owners, and how many end up collecting dust.
I agree, there is a lot of wishful thinking with enthusiasts. Which helps Pimax as well.
Besides that, It is the only replacement for 3D Videos, Yes including the p… thing.
All your points are valid, the sweat, the Zoom-Issue as well. There is no VR office environment You can make use of, … currently… We are early adoptors, Pimax is front runner. But I disagree, VR is not growing.
What is growing, is AR for industrial services, which drags VR with it.
What is growing, is the military usage of these HUD, especially for training, like XTAL.
The Hololens is a joke for consumers, even for Industrial services, it´s a sniper tool.
So a lot of growth will be hidden, and after a while one will be allowed to share consumer aspects.
You just cannot see the growth…
I think he’s presenting a valid perspective. I’ve met other people with similar sentiment. I think it’s representative of a portion of the populace. It’s just not clear how large of a portion.
If I spoke from my own personal experience, I’d say its very much in the minority. But as you mention, this is a forum full of enthusiasts, and I am one. We need to keep in mind that it is our perspective which is atypical, and any anecdotal perspectives we have are likely to be distorted.
True but there is also a lot of enthusiasm. We are early in this VR but I have read a lot of people express that they will no longer play in flatland. I know I can’t go back. If you had told me 50 years ago I would be able to sit inside the race cars and planes in my basement i might have though you mad.
It isn’t just the gaming anymore though. It’s changing exercise. training, education, medicine, social intercourse and so on. I suspect if it were left to just gaming we would be in for a long ride but all these other potentials will help advancement.
Running several thousand dollars of computer equipment to run thousands of thousands of dollars of VR hardware isn’t going to push VR usage into the stratosphere but we are funding the efforts that will have many afford down the road what we fund today. Hug an enthusiast.
OP’s numbers includes Meta’s Oculus, which is selling at a lost. Without Oculus number of 8.7 million, we should see a decline.
I said VR is declining based on my observations:
Bestbuy used to have different headsets, now it’s only Oculus and cardboard in corners. Microcenter used to have VR demo sets, now Oculus and other headsets are sitting in a quiet corner with other gaming devices. The dirt cheap cardboards are sitting in a shelf that few people go.
Steam used to have many VR media players. Now many of them discontinued or abandoned. All that’s left is Virtual Desktop, DeoVR and the new comer Heresphere.
360 cameras used to be hot items. Now there is few new 360 or 180 cameras. Vuze XR camera is a brilliant design, but now in Amazon it’s unavailable. There is a new toy call “QooCam Ego”, which is actually have lower resolution than my Lenovo Mirage camera back in 2018.
Yeah, from my point of view, VR videos and cameras business is steadily declining. I am not sure about gaming, because as I said, I tried and found it uncomfortable for me. So I don’t care about it after a while.
So maybe I should answer the question from the OP, PimaxQuorra, about who will be the major key player in the VR market. It’s the one who can do the leisure business better at an affordable price. For that, Pimax is leading, and going in the right direction.
There are many VR companies with their own products in China. Pimax is just one of them. There is an article about who give them the starting funds:
You can see. Pimax is just like any other companies in America. They still need to raise the fund from the VC and get more funding along the way. The government will probably give them some tax benefits, but not money.
The government will give money to universities or research facilities to develop some new VR tech, but they will generally stay away from giving anything to companies. In recent years, high-tech companies like Alibaba even got smacked down for being disobedient. So no, in China, being a high-tech companies doesn’t mean you get hand-outs from the government. Only a few fields(like chip making, airplanes) can have that, but VR is not one of them.